Is Jay Gruden the most likely NFL coach to get fired?
The Washington Redskins’ Jay Gruden is the favorite to be the first NFL coach fired this season, according to odds posted by Bookmaker.eu. Betting on such things is nonsense – betting is for losers – but the odds are fun to analyze, if for no other reason than they give us a gauge on what bookmakers believe the American public is thinking.
Here are the odds for each coach.
Washington’s Jay Gruden 3/1: It’s a bad bet. The odds are way too low. The ‘Skins would win an early game or two, there will be lots of other teams struggling, owner Daniel Snyder could go cheap again. Lots of things could help Gruden stay employed awhile.
New York Giants’ Pat Shurmur 7/1: Not a bad bet. Despite a good reputation, the Giants were not overly patient with Ben McAdoo, who got most of two seasons before being fired. Will Shurmur get his full second season?
Detroit’s Matt Patricia 10/1: Seems unlikely. There is a lot to like about Patricia. But the Lions will struggle, and Bill Belichick disciples do not usually last long.
Atlanta’s Dan Quinn 27/2: Actually a good bet. The Falcons are restless and haven’t lived up to their billing since the Super Bowl flop.
Houston’s Bill O'Brien 14/1: Bad bet. The Texans have turned over control of the organization to O’Brien. Can’t see them axing O’Brien quickly after that.
Jacksonville’s Doug Marrone 16/1: I could see this one. The Jags had the great 2017 season but slipped mightily last season. More slippage, especially without good ownership, could cause some action.
Minnesota’s Mike Zimmer 18/1: I assume Zimmer is safe. He’s done a good job. Odds probably should be higher.
New York Jets’ Adam Gase 20/1: In his first season? Not likely. Odds are too low.
Miami’s Brian Flores 20/1: Same with Gase. More like 100/1.
Dallas’ Jason Garrett 20/1: Not a bad bet. I actually think Garrett could be a good candidate for coach of the year. But if Dallas gets off to a shaky start, few could blame Jerry Jones for making a change.
Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin 21/1: The Steelers haven’t fired a coach in half a century. Please explain why they would start now.
Carolina’s Ron Rivera 75/4: Same with Rivera. Good coach. Good situation. Probably headed for a good year. But if things go sideways…
Arizona’s Kliff Kingsbury 25/1: Odds are too high. This could get ugly quick. Bad organization. Rookie quarterback. Coach who most likely is in over his head.
Los Angeles Chargers’ Anthony Lynn 30/1: Odds seem low. Lynn has done a good job, and the Chargers aren’t likely to get antsy.
Cleveland’s Freddie Kitchens 30/1: Odds seem high. Volatile ownership. First-year head coach. Combustible roster. The Browns could be 7-1 in November. They also could be 2-6. What then?
Tennessee’s Mike Vrabel 30/1: Heck, for all I know, this is about right. I drove by the stadium in Nashville last week and the thought hit me. The Titans are perhaps the most innocuous decent franchise in the NFL.
Buffalo’s Sean McDermott 30/1: Again, probably about right. The Bills had to tear down the team last season to survive the payroll cap. Everyone seems to think McDermott is a keeper. But does ownership have patience?
San Francisco’s Kyle Shanahan 30/1: Not a bad bet. Expectations are high in the Bay Area. High expectations and low results often mean a firing.
Green Bay’s Matt LaFleur 36/1: The Packers’ first new head coach in 13 years. Green Bay isn’t like to be quick-triggered.
Seattle’s Pete Carroll 35/1: I would say 350/1 is more like it.
Denver’s Vic Fangio 40/1: New coach. Solid franchise. Odds too low.
Tampa Bay’s Bruce Arians 60/1: Everyone seems to love Arians. But will they love him if Jameis Winston starts throwing interceptions and the Bucs are 1-5?
Baltimore’s John Harbaugh 60/1: If it’s 60/1 that Harbaugh is the first coach to go, is must be 60/1 that Baltimore will outlaw crabcakes.
Oakland’s Jon Gruden 60/1: That bloated contract means job security for Gruden.
Cincinnati’s Zac Taylor 60/1: Probably about right. The Bengals gave Marvin Lewis 16 years. Seems like they’ll probably give Taylor 16 games.
Indianapolis’ Frank Reich 85/1: The Colts love Reich. But high expectations and a quarterback with an injury past? I might keep an eye on Indy.
Chicago’s Matt Nagy 85/1: Why are these odds are so high? Has the ’85 defense been reincarnated?
New Orleans’ Sean Payton 85/1: You might interest me if the odds were 850/1.
Kansas City’s Andy Reid 120/1: This is more like it. Andy Reid is not going to be the first coach fired.
Philadelphia’s Doug Pederson 120/1: Not as much job security as Andy Reid, but still quite a bit.
Los Angeles Rams’ Sean McVay 120/1: Really? 120/1? Who would bet that?
New England’s Bill Belichick 200/1: Let’s see. The question is not will Belichick be fired. The question is, will Belichick be the first coach fired? The odds should be 200,000/1.
No coach fired during the season: 120/1. This is the best bet on the board.