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The hazardous weather outlook

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern… western…central…and southern oklahoma…and western north texas.

Day one…this afternoon and tonight

Thunderstorms… There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and tonight for parts western north Texas and far southern Oklahoma.

Location… The slight risk area is south of a Quanah to Frederick… to Lawton… to Pauls Valley and Madill line. The slight risk area includes all of western north Texas.

Timing… most severe thunderstorms are expected between 4 and 9 pm today. a few severe storms may linger after 9 pm.

Impacts… very large hail up to the size of tennis balls or baseballs will be the main hazard. damaging winds up to 70 mph are possible as well.

Discussion… Between 4 and 9 pm today…isolated severe storms may develop near a dryline and along or south of a warm front over western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. With moderate instability and strong shear…any storm that does develop will likely be supercells capable of producing very large hail as the main hazard. Damaging winds are possible as well. Weak low level winds and high cloud bases should limit tornado potential. a strong capping inversion as well as the lack of a significant mid level trigger will keep storm coverage sparse late this afternoon and evening. there is a chance no storms develop at all due to strong capping.

After 9 pm this evening…any isolated storms over western north Texas and southern Oklahoma are anticipated to weaken as a capping inversion strengthens with the loss of daytime heating. New elevated storms may develop over northern Oklahoma later tonight as the low level jet increases. A low severe risk will continue tonight with large hail as the main hazard.

Days two through seven…Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms… a more robust severe weather episode may take shape Wednesday afternoon and night…mainly over central and northern Oklahoma. Although only a handful of storms may actually occur on Wednesday….very large hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany any storm that develops…along with a threat of tornadoes. Storms that manage to develop may weaken after sunset on Wednesday.

Severe storm chances may continue late Wednesday night into early Thursday mainly along and east of I-35 as the mid/upper trough approaches. the main hazards are expected to be large hail and damaging winds.

Thunderstorm chances will return to the area Saturday night through Sunday night…but severe storms appear unlikely during this timeframe.

Fire weather… very high to extreme wildfire danger will likely occur west of a dryline across western north Texas and western Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon into early evening due to breezy…hot…and dry conditions. A fire weather watch is in effect.

Elevated fire danger may occur on thursday across western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma.

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Bryan Painter

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